I would like to state for the record, i don’t hate Josh Hamilton. I don’t like how he behaves and he has offended me as a baseball fan. I also think you never bash your former team. For me when you become a Ranger you get my Fandom, and when you leave, I will still hope good things for you and when the Rangers are not in the playoff then yeah I will cheer for you. I have always done that and I always will.
That being said. OH NO! Josh Hamilton is back to being a Ranger and as I write this I scan Twitter for some glimmer of hope that the deal has collapsed. Nope we are still a go. OK.
Well as the news broke out you could tell the real fan from the fake ones. I almost laughed at the fans who thought they are getting 2011 Josh Hamilton .298/.346/.536 no we are not getting this. We are getting this .263/.331/.414, for 15 million over the next three years.
So as you know its my quest to finally learn metrics and I thought I would start today. so armed with my new email subscription to Baseball Prospectus, I think we can get the same ballplayer Josh Hamilton for less than 5 million a year. Let’s test this theory.
Well let me start off by saying WHOA! That’s a lot of stats,but after a bit of searching around I think I got what I needed. According to the Baseball Prospectus 2015 The Essential Guide to the 2015 Season. I am not quoting the stats you want the stats do what the rest of us do Buy the book. I will tell you that Ryan Ludwick was a comparable to Josh Hamilton. Ryan Ludwick was signed by the Rangers this spring and let go. Now isn’t that interesting.
A quick search and a highlighter in hand I have figured out players who would be a better investment, give us the same batting support as Hamilton and be about half the cost of 15 million over three years
Why did i pick these guys, well I had my reasons. No in all seriousness Baseball Prospectus listed Ryan Ludwick (which we already talked about ) and Josh Willingham as comparables.
So on my list Robbie Grossman had a higher BA BIP .311 than Ludwick and his FB% is 25.8% which is better than Ludwick and the same as Josh Hamilton
Junior Lake has a BA BIP of .293 while lower than Hamilton his FB% is greater than Hamilton 26.9%
but if you are just looking at BA BIP than Corey Dickerson has it with .356 to Hamilton .350 the other plus for Corey is he is 25. An investment for the future.
Anyone of these guys would love 15 million over the next three years, or even half that. Its time to stop waxing nostalgia and take off the rose colored glasses. The Josh that led us to victory is not here anymore. Can he come back? Well for 15 million he better come back but I think its time for Jon Daniels to really look what is out there and do some serious research.