Tag Archives: Baseball Prospectus

Metric Monday: BRR it’s cold.

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Why did I wait so long to understand this stuff. I feel like i am entering into college at 50.

I am looking at stats and these new stats pop up at me. TaV, BABIP, BRR, FRAA and WARP. What does it all mean? Well I thought  I would look over Prince Fielder and learn what all these stats mean.

 

What is

TaV:True Average what a player does at the plate. Hitting, walks, strike outs. what makes this a true average is it takes in how the player is used and where.

.300 is exceptional  .260 is average and .200 is poor

BRR no its not cold in here This is Baserunning Runs The player’s ability to steal and advance bases.  ( like how likely they will go from 1st to 3rd on a single)

5-12 is Excellent  0-4 is Good 0 is average -4 through -9 is poor and anything above -9 is very bad.

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play and there is a fun equation to go with it. BABIP = (H – HR) / (AB – K – HR + SF + SH)

FRAA: Fielding Runs above Avg, While reading up on the history of metrics they were not always standard. So Baseball Prospectus has their own stat here. Here is their explanation:

” The biggest difference between Fielding Runs Above Average and similar defensive metrics comes in the data and philosophy used. Whereas other metrics use zone-based fielding data, Fielding Runs Above Average ignores that data due to the numerous biases present. Fielding Runs Above Average instead focuses on play-by-play data, taking a step back and focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position. The pitcher’s groundball tendencies, batter handedness, park, and base-out state all go into figuring out how many plays an average player at a position would make.”

WARP: this one you may have seen as WAR but its Wins Above Replacement Player

This takes all the stats and also accounts for position played and this shows how this particular player is better than the replacement.

Here from the Baseball Prospectus website:

Here is an example of the Wins Above Replacement Player spectrum based on the 2011 season:

Excellent – Jose Bautista 10.3
Great – Hunter Pence 5.2
Average -Gaby Sanchez 2.0
Poor – Adam Lind 0.5
Horrendous – Adam Dunn -1.7

I go to my trusty Baseball Prospectus 2015 , turn to page 401 for the then,  I go to the BP website for the now.

Prince Fielder

Then                                                                                                     Now

TAv: .311 (Exceptional)                                                                 3.09

BABIP:.297 ( Average)                                                                    3.76

BRR: -.2.1 (Poor)                                                                             -3.2

FRAA:-1.8                                                                                           -0.3

WARP: 1.3 (below Average)                                                         1.9

I am seeing improvement, Prince is playing DH more than 1st right now. He has got some moves like on Sunday’s game he came all the way from 1st to home on the Josh Hamilton double.  Great to see after being injured. I love the Ranger comeback.

Lost in Metrics

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Its  Monday and I wanted to start my learning of Sabermetrics. Its a lot of information. Enough to make someone go ACKKK!!!!. But I press on. I have my Baseball Prospectus 2014, there is a forward from Gabe Kapler. (I am on his site, you are going to hear his name a lot)

To quote Kap

“In 2007, just before I embarked on a season as minor league manager in the Red Sox system, Boston General Manager Ben Cheringotn gave me a study on the sacrifice bunt and how it was being misused in the major-league level. I laid down 20 sacrifice bunts in my playing career , my consistent employment as a player I would have been very easy for me to discard Cherington’s information, That would have been ego-driven approach based on the rigid belief that because I played the game at a high level , I had little left to learn.

Many players have chosen that route. Executives in the game (like Cheringotn) have moved from old-school statistics to newer metrics when it comes to player analysis yet most players themselves have not . But that stance would have left me stagnant while more open-minded individuals continued their growth. We shouldn’t want to be left behind and I’m driven not to be In my quest I am led by the ingenuity and substance of publications like the one you hold”

Well you are not holding it I am. I could read Kap all day long. He’s right its time to really look at metrics. I look at this from a fan perspectives we have to understand what management is doing.  This is not going to be an easy subject to learn but its necessary.

Now its time to read, I went to  http://sabr.org/sabermetrics

there I am reading about the basics of metrics, from the site:

First, let’s go over some basics:

  • What is sabermetrics? As originally defined by Bill James in 1980, sabermetrics is “the search for objective knowledge about baseball”. James coined the phrase in part to honor the Society for American Baseball Research. 
  • Who invented sabermetrics? Statistical analysis has been around as long as baseball has been played competitively. Long before Moneyball became a worldwide phenomenon in the 21st century and before Bill James’ baseball writings gained mainstream popularity in the 1980s, Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver was using index cards to fine-tune his platooning system and pitching changes with the Baltimore Orioles in the 1960s, while Branch Rickey hired statistician Allan Roth in the 1940s to evaluate player performance with the Brooklyn Dodgers. A generation before that, Baseball Magazine editor F.C. Lane was creating new statistical methods to measure offensive production, culminating in his classic book of essays, Batting. In the mid-19th century, Henry Chadwick is credited with developing the box score and his tabulation of hits, home runs and total bases led to the formulation of metrics such as batting average and slugging percentage.
  • SABR or sabermetrics? With more than 6,000 members around the world, SABR is a membership organization comprised of passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans with a variety of interests — one of them being statistical analysis. SABR members Bill James, Pete Palmer and Dick Cramer co-founded SABR’s Statistical Analysis Committee in 1974 and helped popularize the study of sabermetrics. The phrase “sabermetrics” itself is in the public domain and is generally used to describe any mathematical or statistical study of baseball.

Sabermetric researchers often use statistical analysis to question traditional measures of baseball evaluation such as batting average and pitcher wins. Early on, James’ theories were largely mocked (or ignored) by the baseball establishment, but as Joe Posnanski wrote in “The Ballad of Bill James”, over time his work started to be recognized. Time Magazine once named him one of the 100 most influential people in the world. The Boston Red Sox hired him in 2003 and subsequently won two World Series. James is still asking relevant questions today at billjamesonline.com, and so are legions of his disciples such as Rob Neyer, baseball editor at FoxSports.com; Birnbaum; and all the great writers at Baseball Analysts, Baseball Prospectus, Beyond the Box Score, FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and other sites.

Want a primer on sabermetrics? Check out the FanGraphs Library for down-to-earth explanations of advanced metrics such as wOBA (weighted on-base average), FIP (fielding-independent pitching) and WAR (wins above replacement), written by Steve Slowinski. SABR members can also read cutting-edge articles on statistical analysis in every issue of the Baseball Research Journal, such as “The Many Flavors of DIPS: A History and Overview”, by Dan Basco and Michael Davies. We’ve got a full list of resources on our Related Links page at the end of this section.

Be sure to check out the annual SABR Analytics Conference, where we bring together the top minds of the baseball analytic community under one roof to discuss, debate and share insightful ways to analyze and examine the great game of baseball.

We also have a lot more online tools available for SABR members on our Research Resources page, including Matt Dennewitz’s Saber Archive, an online repository of sabermetric articles.

Whether you’re just starting out or you’d like a refresher course, whether you’re a numbers wizard or you consider yourself math-phobic, we hope you’ll find Phil Birnbaum’s Guide to Sabermetric Research informative and interesting.

Well I have got some reading to do. #StrongMind

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Football is over, time for BASEBALL

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A little more than two weeks and spring training officially begin with pitchers and catchers reporting. I’m ready to see what is going to happen and a little preview for next week. I’m going to make my predictions. I just bought my 2015 Baseball Prospectus: The Essential Guide to the 2015 Season. Last year I was miffed at them saying Jayson Nix wasn’t suited to be a starter. I beg your pardon BP (Baseball Prospectus) any team could use a good solid infielder. You want a big bat then go buy one but you also need someone who can handle the infield and Nix is it. No, I’m not letting my fandom cloud my judgement. There are three parts of the game. Hitting, Pitching and Fielding. In the AL we buy a big bat and make him the DH. This gives some leeway to having someone whose not a power hitter but can help on the field. I think fans forget this sometimes. A good fielder will prevent more runs than a good hitter can create. So tonight I’m going to read my new guide and ill try to not get miffed when they say something I don’t agree.

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